Users first: how to sequence investments for ambitious sustainable transport projects
By strategically sequencing investments, you can make ambitious plans more resilient to political shifts and gain support from across the aisle.
When local transport authorities seek consultancy services for sustainable transport investments, they often have their sights set on a specific project: a new tram line, urban regeneration, bus franchising, or perhaps a guided busway.
While these projects invariably enhance sustainable transport infrastructure, I find myself wondering about the thought process behind their timing. I often think that many of these projects are good, but they could be unquestionably great if a series of interventions were implemented beforehand.
The challenge of car dependency
The issue with investing in sustainable transport is that most of our cities and towns rely on cars. In theory, a car-dependent city could decide to build an entirely new network of tramlines and improve bus services to achieve a significant shift toward sustainable mobility. However, such an investment would likely require substantial funding with unclear returns—or in business case language, it will be "low value for money."
The reason is simple: places currently reliant on cars are typically designed for cars—low density, wide roads, and dispersed destinations. These car-oriented spatial layouts don't support public transport or other sustainable modes. Distances are too great for walking or cycling, and existing infrastructure is often hostile to those not protected by metal sheets.
Escaping the car trap
Does this mean we're forever trapped in car dependency? Certainly not, though escaping is difficult. With sufficient political will and available funding, communities can invest significantly in sustainable transport modes like tram networks, rail links, or guided busways.
But recent history has taught us that political will is unreliable. Political winds change direction frequently. Any local project relying solely on political support remains vulnerable.
Projects with strong economic cases—or better yet, those that are financially viable (where future revenues cover operations)—are much safer bets. These projects are more likely to be implemented regardless of political agenda.
A strategic roadmap
The safest approach to beginning our journey toward a more sustainable transport network is to plan a sequence of investments and planning changes, each with a strong economic case and (potentially) financial viability. Think of it as a roadmap—a blueprint for a sustainable future.
The key principle is simple: start with your existing users. Even the most car-dependent places have pockets where sustainable mobility already dominates:
Areas where people walk despite hostile infrastructure
Bus routes with substantial ridership
Well-used train stations on the town's periphery
If you have a street busy with pedestrians, implement a road diet—increase pedestrian space to encourage even more foot traffic. Soon enough more people will arrive at such places using buses or other sustainable modes, and at that point, investing further will be a no-brainer.
For bus routes with high demand, introduce bus priority and increase frequency to generate even higher ridership. A future tram network is more likely to be financially viable if it is overlaid on an existing network of high-frequency, high-demand buses.
Near busy rail stations, plan new housing developments and use value capture mechanisms to improve service.
Building support while avoiding setbacks
Focusing on existing users is not only the reasonable thing to do from a financial and economic point of view—it is also more likely to generate the public support that is desperately needed for every sustainable transport investment. Existing users of sustainable infrastructure are much more likely to be enthusiastic supporters than future users who are currently unidentifiable.
While focusing on existing users of sustainable transport infrastructure, it is of utmost importance to not create more car-dependent users. Low-density urban extensions or settlements are a sure way to generate more objections to your sustainable transport interventions and make it even more difficult than it already is.
I think that every local authority in the country that wants to increase the freedom of its residents to walk, cycle, and use public transport should have a blueprint roadmap for a sustainable future. The roadmap should clearly show the sequence of interventions and explain why one is needed before the other.
In theory, Local Transport Plans could do that; however, in practice, most local transport plans include a collection of potential projects and aspirations in no particular order, and with no mention of financial viability.
By adopting a strategic sequencing approach, you can transform your city from car dependency to sustainable mobility—one carefully planned step at a time.
If you made it thus far, and you have an ambitious project in mind (whether you’re a consultant, activist or a politician), drop me a message, let’s try to think about the right sequence of investments to get there.
